Increasing occurrence of oceanic disasters as a
potential threat to coastal ecology and the role of climate change
Dipankar Ghoraia, H.S.Senb*
a Subject Matter Specialist, Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Central Research
Institute of Jute & Allied Fibres (ICAR), Burdwan, West Bengal, India
-713403, Mailing address: Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Bud Bud, Burdwan, West
Bengal, India – 713403;
b* Former Director, Central Research Institute of Jute & Allied
Fibres (ICAR), Barrackpore, West Bengal, India 700 120, Mailing address
(Residence): 2/74 Naktala, P.O. Naktala, Kolkata, West Bengal, India –
700047, Ph. No.: 91 9874189762,. Fax: 91 0343 2513651, E-mail: hssen.india@gmail.com,
hssen2000@hotmail.com (Corresponding author)
Abstract:
Coastal
are inimitable in view of their frailty as compared to terrestrial ecosystems,
and yet in their indispensability in preserving the terrestrial ecosystems.
More often than not, these are more precious in terms of their natural, built,
human and social capitals over land ecosystems; and yet more often than not
these are subjected to ill considerate and unbridled anthropogenic stresses for
gaining entrée to these capitals. The
human ‘undoings’ albeit, enhancement in climate change induced degenerative –
and often cataclysmic – marine influences in form of tropical and extratropical
cyclones, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc. are only adding to the woes in the coastal ecosystem in so far as
the stability - and the very existence as well! - is concerned. In view of these
impending threats on various coastal habitats due to increasing ferocity of
oceanic perturbations coupled with anthropogenic stresses, adaptation and
mitigation measures are called for in the face or rising oceanic disturbances
to resuscitate and rejuvenate coastal landforms. Since man cannot dictate over
nature, adaptation measures are necessitated to “Better live with” the
nature’s furies while mitigation is required to “Better deal with” the
human-induced pressures. The present paper critically reviews the potential
threats to coastal ecology due to climate change induced likely temporal and
spatial variation of oceanic disturbances while suggesting some plausible
adaptation and mitigation measures to offset the ill effects.
Key
words: Coastal ecosystem, climate change, tropical cyclone,
extratropical cyclone, adaptation and mitigation
1.
Introduction
Is global climate
change going to bump up incidence of sea-level disasters in future? The answer remains one of the most sought after in recent
times. Recent studies conducted worldwide by IPCC (IPCC 2012), World
Meteorological Organization (Knutson et al. 2010) and others (Bender
et al. 2010) are all in unanimity in
their conjectures that climate shift will alter the frequency, intensity, temporal,
and spatial variability of hurricanes and tropical storms. These can spell
havoc for the coastal ecology that has already been under severe stress,
principally, on account of manifold anthropogenic doings – and ‘undoings’ as
well! Coastal ecosystem – a transitional precinct between terrestrial and
marine influences (Sen et al. 2000) – maintains a geomorphodynamic equilibrium
between geomorphologic and oceanographic controls (Cowell et al. 2003) and as
such whenever some external stimuli act, it responds by shifting its equilibrium
position (Woodroffe 2003). But, long lasting and intensified catastrophes may
break this elasticity and wreak irreversible and irretrievable dent in this
equilibration process (Nicholls et al. 2007). Since coasts act as the first
line of defence against sea-level disturbances, this could induce more
vulnerability to mainland human establishments through enhanced exposure. This
apart, change in spatial distribution of storms is another worrisome factor
that should be taken into account for this would cause harm to the hitherto virgin
and unaffected coastal areas. This entails rigorous adaptation and mitigation
measures and increased awareness in all possible quarters to offset the ill
effects of extreme sea-level disasters on coastal ecology.
While impacts on coastal wetlands on account of rising sea-level
has been well understood and documented (Tamura et al. 2010; Titus 1998; Ramesh and Purvaja 2004), understanding of the
impacts of climate change that augmented increases in oceanic disasters and finally
their impacts on coastal ecology is less clear. The present paper is an enunciation of the impending threats
faced by different coastal habitats on account of climate change phenomena, and
invoke perspicacious and percipient action to ‘better deal with’ (Mitigation)
the nature’s blessings ─ in form of coastal ecosystems ─ in order ‘to better
live with’ (Adaptation) the nature’s perils ─ in form of tropical storms. .
2. Valuing coastal
ecosystem vis-à-vis oceanic disasters
Coastal
ecosystem for its’ high primary, as well as secondary, productivity and its
richness in all other respects has been subjected to blatant anthropogenic
stresses in the 20th century. Presently, few of the world’s coasts are free
from human pressures. These pressures would be exacerbated during the 21st
century sans rigid public policies. These non-climatic stressors along with the
climatic stressors will seriously impair the resilience of the coastal
ecosystems (USAID 2009). Different coastal ecosystems viz., back-barrier environments (e.g. estuary, lagoons and bays),
mangroves, beaches, salt marshes, seagrasses and coral reefs, while maintaining
equilibrium with land and oceanic influences (Fig. 1), offset the pressures
thrust by disasters by virtue of their respective intrinsic adaptive
capabilities (Fig. 2), apart from serving plethora of goods and services to human
society.
Fig. 1 Climate
change, terrestrial and marine influence interaction with coastal ecosystem
Fig. 2 Storms
interaction with different coastal ecosystem
3.
Climate change augmented climate extremes – implications to coastal ecology
3.1.
Causes, trend and future projections
Global climate change will alter temperature and
precipitation regimes, oceanic and atmospheric circulation, rate of rising sea-level,
and the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of hurricanes and
tropical storms (Seneviratne et al.
2012), the magnitude of which and their subsequent impacts on
coastal wetlands will vary temporally and spatially. The ecological effects of
tropical storms and hurricanes indicate that storm frequency, intensity, and
their variations can alter coastal wetland hydrology, geomorphology, biotic
structure, energetics, and nutrient cycling (Mitchener et al. 1997). The more these storms eat out
the coastal wetlands, the more will be the exposure, and hence the vulnerability,
to future such occurrences (IPCC 2012). Tropical (occurring in tropical oceans)
and extratropical cyclones (occurring near the poles), in particular, pose a significant threat to coastal
populations and infrastructure, and marine interests such as shipping and
offshore activities. Added to these are tsunamis and earthquakes,
besides giving severe blows to particularly coastal wetlands time to time, take
heavy toll of human capital as well.
3.1.1. Tropical cyclones
It has been argued that
higher sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic Ocean and increased water
vapour in the lower atmosphere—caused by global warming—are to blame for the
past decades intense storms (Trenberth 2005; Knutson et al. 2006;
Gillett et al. 2008). The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) suggests from observations since
1961 that ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate
system, and that ocean temperatures have increased to depths of at least 3000
m. In addition to the natural variability of tropical SSTs, several studies
have concluded that there is a detectable tropical SST warming trend due to
increasing greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin (Karoly and Wu 2005). It
should be mentioned here that the threshold conditions for tropical
cyclogenesis are controlled not just by surface temperature but also by
atmospheric stability (measured from the lower boundary to the tropopause),
which responds to greenhouse gas forcing in a more complex way than SST alone
(Kunkel et al. 2008).
The
miseries of coastal ecosystem, irrespective of the country, are compounded
significantly owing to increasing frequency of tropical cyclones (storms,
cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons) with time observed worldwide (Sen 2009) (Fig.
3). The data, compiled over a span of 40 to 100-year, depending on their
availabilities in different ocean basins, show striking increase in the trend
of each event with time. This corroborates well with the total number of
disasters reported worldwide, resulting in heavy loss of human and other
capitals as well over the last 100 years (Figs. 4 & 5).
Fig. 3 Frequency of occurrence of cyclonic storms,
hurricanes and typhoons year wise in different oceans
Given this trend
continues in the present century, we may witness mass scale eradication of
coastal ecosystems in various parts of the world. However, there have been
objections to this frequency trend measurement on the grounds that historical
records are known to be heterogeneous due to spurious data quality, changing
observing technology and reporting protocols (Knapp and Kruk, 2010). Other
workers (Webster et al. 2005; Kunkel et al. 2008; Kossin et al. 2007) have
also questioned the reliability of the trend with the view that changing
technology has introduced a non-stationary bias that inflated the trends. This
suggests that the number of cyclones per year has remained constant (average 90
per year) since the period of modern geostationary satellites (from 1970).
Fig.
4 Number of reported disasters worldwide (reproduced from free access site)
Fig.
5 Number of people affected by natural diasters (reproduced from free access
site)
Still, one
worrisome factor - the changing intensity of the cyclones - remains. Intensity
of cyclones is measured in Saffir-Simpson scale - from 1 to 5 – where category
4 and 5 are rare. Unlike frequency trend, there has been more accord regarding
the increasing intensity trend among workers in US and other
countries (Hegerl et al. 2007; Meehl et al. 2007; Wehner et al. 2010). These
workers are in unison that future tropical cyclones will become more intense,
with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation. Within a timescale of
15 years between 1975 - 1989 and 1990 – 2004 there have been substantial
enhancements in the number of category 4 and 5 cyclones in all the major oceans
(Webster et al. 2005) (Fig. 6). Example is that the strongest cyclone ever
recorded happened in the present century in the form of Hurricane Katrina which
nearly spelled doom for the Californian coast resulting in mass scale
destruction of human, infrastructural and natural capital. The apparent
increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is
much larger than that simulated by current models for that period. In a study
(Unnikrishnan et al. 2006) on present status and future scenario for Indian
coast surface atmospheric parameters from HadRM2 and the storm surge
simulations suggest that number of intense tropical cyclones and high surges
are likely to swell in the regional climate of the Bay Bengal. This finding is
consistent with the study on trend analysis (SMRC 2000) their study
deals with only one future climate scenario. According to them, it is necessary
to examine simulations from more scenarios for obtaining better regional
climate projections for the future.
The future projections
(Knutson et al. 2010; Bender et al. 2010)
based on broad range of modeling studies project a probable
amplification in peak wind intensity and near-storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Even
a reduction (6 to 34% by the late 21st century) of the overall number of storms
was also projected, though with lower confidence, with a greater reduction in
weaker storms in most basins and an increase in the frequency of the most
intense storms (Seneviratne 2012). Knutson et al. (2010) concluded that it is
likely that the mean maximum wind speed (2 to 11% increase in mean maximum wind
speed globally) and near-storm rainfall rates of tropical cyclones will
increase with projected 21st century warming, and it is likely than not that
the frequency of the most intense storms will increase substantially in some
basins, but the overall global tropical cyclone frequency will decrease or
remain essentially unchanged.
Fig.
6 Change in percentage of category 4 and 5 storms in major oceanic basins (prepared based on the primary data from Webster et
al. 2005)
3.1.2. Extratropical cyclones
Extratropical
cyclones emerge out of atmospheric flux such as a disturbance along a zone of
strong temperature dissimilarity (baroclinic instabilities), which is a
reservoir of available potential energy that can be converted into the kinetic
energy associated with extratropical cyclones. In summary,
there is medium confidence in an anthropogenic influence on the observed
poleward shift in extratropical cyclone activity (IPCC 2012). Although, it has
not formally been attributed, indirect evidences such as global anthropogenic
influence on the sea-level pressure distribution and trend patterns in
atmospheric storminess inferred from geotropic wind and ocean wave heights have
been found. While physical understanding of how anthropogenic forces influencing
extratropical cyclone storm tracks has strengthened, the importance of the
different mechanisms in the observed shifts is still unclear (Seneviratne et
al. 2012).
Extratropical
cyclones are the main poleward transporter of heat and moisture and may be
accompanied by adverse weather conditions like windstorms, high waves and storm
surges, or heavy rain (Seneviratne et al. 2012). Thus, changes in the intensity
of extratropical cyclones or a systematic shift in the geographical location of
extratropical cyclone activity may have a great impact on a wide range of
regional climate extremes as well as the long-term changes in temperature and
precipitation. It needs to be understood that the Greenland and West Antarctic
ice sheets face substantial melting if the global average temperature rises
more than ~2 to ~7°F (1 to 4°C) relative to the period 1990–2000. Higher
temperatures are expected to further raise sea-level by expanding ocean water,
melting mountain glaciers and small ice caps, and causing portions of Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets to melt. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) estimates that the global
average sea-level will be raised between 0.6 and 2 feet (0.18 to 0.59 meters)
in the next century depending on the different emission scenario. An increase
in extratropical cyclone activity would exacerbate this rise in sea-level as this
type of cyclones transfer heat poleward which would eventually upshot into melting
of ice caps.
Trenberth et al. (2007)
noted a likely net increase in the frequency/intensity of Northern Hemisphere
extreme extratropical cyclones and a poleward shift in the tracks since the
1950s. Studies indicate a northward and
eastward shift in the Atlantic cyclone activity during the last 60 years with
both more frequent and more intense wintertime cyclones in the high-latitude
Atlantic (Raible et al. 2008; Vilibic and Sepic 2010) and fewer in the
mid-latitude Atlantic (Wang et al. 2006). It should be noted that opinions
differ in terms of increase in intensity and number of extratropical cyclones.
Seneviratne et al. (2012) cited several articles where one group show an
increase in intensity and number of extratropical cyclones (Geng and Sugi 2001;
Paciorek et al. 2002; Lehmann et al. 2011) while others show a reduction (Gulev
et al. 2001), and some others in support of no significant change (Zhang et al.
2004a). Seneviratne et al. (2012) concluded that there has been a poleward
shift in the main northern and southern storm tracks during the last five
decades.
3.2.
Implications to coastal ecosystems
Apart from sea-level
rise induced coastal erosion and inundation to expected level, climate change
associated alterations in frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of
tropical and extratropical cyclones can spell additional damage due to:
1) Modifications in the
incidence or strength of ephemeral storm erosion events (Zhang et al. 2004b)
2) Alterations in wave
velocity due to combined effects of increased wind speed with sea-level rise ─
thereby altering wave direction ─ causing repositioning of shorelines (Tamura
et al. 2010; Bryan et al. 2008)
3) Reduction in
permafrost or sea ice in mid- and high latitudes, which exposes soft shores to
the effects of waves and severe storms (Manson and Solomon 2007).
It
requires to be examined as to how the various components of coastal ecology, as
enunciated earlier, may be affected in the face of rising episodic sea-level
extremes.
3.2.1. Back-barrier environments
and saltmarshes
Coastal
storms could alter bottom sediment dynamics, organic matter inputs,
phytoplankton and fisheries populations, salinity and oxygen levels, and
biogeochemical processes in estuaries (Paerl et al. 2001). Wang and Fan (2005)
elucidated the role of powerful storms in structuring estuarine sediments and
biodiversity in the stratigraphic record of massive, episodic estuary infilling
of Bohai Bay , China Poland
The most detrimental natural force causing
destruction of saltmarsh and its inhabitants are hurricanes (Chabreck 1988).
Climate change will likely have its most pronounced effects on salt (and fresh
water as well) marshes in the coastal zone through alteration of hydrological
regimes (Burkett and Kusler 2000; Baldwin et al. 2001b), specifically, the
nature and variability of hydroperiod and the number and severity of extreme
events.
3.2.2. Mangroves
Although climate change augmented relative sea-level
rise posing the greatest threat to the mangrove ecology, increased intensity
and frequency of storms has the potential to increase damage to mangroves
through defoliation and tree mortality. In addition
to this, storms can alter mangrove sediment elevation through soil erosion (Baldwin
et al. 2001a), soil deposition, peat collapse, and soil compression (Cahoon et
al. 2006). One study by US Geological survey (Doyle 1997) used hurricane and
mangrove simulation models, namely HURASIM and
MANGRO, respectively, in forecasting the fate of mangrove forests along the
coasts of Florida which revealed that occurrence of major storms every
30 years in 21st century may be the most important factor controlling mangrove
ecosystem dynamics and in case storms become more intense over the next
century, they may further alter the structure and composition of the Florida
mangrove landscape. Haq (2010) estimated that one single cyclone Sidr has destroyed nearly one-third of
the mangrove population in the Bangladesh Dominican Republic
3.2.3.
Beaches
In all probability
future cyclone and storm will produce higher and more potent waves, thereby
accelerating beach erosion through altered sediment budget (Schlacher et al. 2008). This accelerated beach
erosion in tandem with storms can lead to erosion or inundation of other
coastal systems (Stone et al. 2003). Highly dynamic shorelines of gravel and
cobble boulder beaches are likely to be influenced by storms (Orford et al.
2001). Globally 70% of beaches are already receding, 20–30% is stable, while
10% or less is accreting (Bird 2000). By 2050 about 1300 km2 of
additional coastal land loss is projected if current global, regional and local
processes continue. The projected accelerated sea-level rise and increase in
tropical storm intensity would exacerbate these losses (Barras et al. 2003). In
Estonia , Kont et al. (2008)
reported increased beach erosion, which is believed to be the result of
increased storminess in the eastern Baltic Sea
since 1954, combined with a decline in sea ice cover during the winter. In the Caribbean, the beach profiles at 200
sites across 113 beaches and eight islands were monitored on a three-monthly
basis from 1985 to 2000 with most beaches found to be eroding and faster rates
of erosion generally found on islands that had been impacted by increased
frequency of hurricanes (Cambers 2009).
Although
anthropogenic perturbations are principally responsible for loss of seagrass
meadows, altered environmental conditions arising out of global climate change e.g.,
sea-level rise, storm intensification, etc. can exacerbate these losses (Duarte
2002). Preen et al. (1995) have shown
that seagrass shallow coastal environment is also particularly prone to
physical disturbances, whether by waves or turbulences associated with strong
storms and concluded that increasing sea-level coupled with enhanced storm
activity is conducive to increasing coastal erosion and subsequent loss of
seagrass meadows. After Hurricane Opal, a category 3 storm, which struck the Gulf Coast
in 1995, substantial seagrass loss was observed in Santa Rosa Sound , Florida
3.2.5.
Coral reefs
Damage to coral reefs results from the physical
force of hurricane induced waves, sand-blasting of live tissue, abrasion from
impact with dislodged coral fragments, and smothering or burial of organisms in
sand transported by storm seas. Damage is variable or 'patchy' on several
scales (Woodley et al. 1981; Harmelin-Vivien and Laboute
1986). Generally, it is more severe in shallower water (Porter et al. 1981).
While increasing ocean acidification and thermal stress comprise the principal
threats to coral reefs, many reefs are affected by tropical cyclones
(hurricanes, typhoons); impacts range from minor breakage of fragile corals to
destruction of the majority of corals on a reef and deposition of debris as
coarse storm ridges (Stoddart 1963). An intensification of tropical storms
could have devastating consequences on the reefs (Goreau
et al. 2008). Effect of hurricanes may injure coral reefs to an irrecoverable
extent as has been shown by different workers (Gardner et al. 2005).
3.3. Adaptation and mitigation: better
living and better dealing
. In view of the impending threats
on various coastal habitats due to increasing ferocity of oceanic perturbations
coupled with anthropogenic stresses, adaptation and mitigation measures are
called for in the face or rising oceanic disturbances to resuscitate and
rejuvenate coastal landforms. Since man cannot dictate over nature, adaptation
measures are necessitated to “Better live with” the nature’s furies while
mitigation is required to “Better deal with” the human-induced pressures. In
case of coastal ecosystems these measures are not clearly separable. The key
strategy should be to mitigate the anthropogenic stresses to the extent
possible for better adaptation against the nature’s furies. Putting in other
words, the better we deal with (more mitigation) the terrestrial and
climatogenic influences, the better we live with (less adaptation), the
oceanographic influences (Fig. 7). Although, our tryst with truth reveals that
we have actually ‘better lived with’ the natural disasters, of which the
oceanic events forms a major part, in terms of decreasing death toll (Fig. 8)
over the years, in the event of increasing occurrence/intensity of storms and
in absentia of mitigation coastal ecology will be more exposed to future
threats thereby increasing the vulnerability in respect of human, built and
natural capital (IPCC 2012).
In
fine, possible actions for a comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategy could
be as follows,
- Lesser
dependence on fossil fuels and green agricultural policies so as not to
augment GHG concentration.
- Coastal
wetland protection and restoration, and, if and wherever possible, wetland
creation.
- Beach
and dune nourishment in order to restore beaches to serve as buffer
against flooding and erosion.
- Improved
fishery practices for protection of rural livelihood, food security and
marine biodiversity against impact of extreme events.
- Community
based risk reduction programmes.
- Integrated
coastal zone management (ICZM).
- Building
‘bioshield’ (mangroves or Seagrasses) for augmented defense against
sea-level extremes.
- Revised
spatial planning for coastal watersheds with regards to water resource
budgeting having focus on minimal abstraction of ground water, and improved run-off and riverine management.
- Improved weather/inundation
forecast and warning system and reducing
uncertainty in coastal climate change projections.
- Improved
coast development policy with proper building construction codes and scope
for setbacks/managed retreats and rolling easements in case of oceanic
calamities.
- Better
understanding of the components of coastal ecosystem and their dynamic equilibrium for there are considerable gaps in
our knowledge. For example, there is a lack of research initiative on sea
grasses although they are immensely valuable (Duarte et al., 2008)
Fig.
7 Adaptation-Mitigation vis-à-vis
influences on coastal ecology
Fig.
8 Number of natural disasters as against number of people affected and died (reproduced
from free access site)
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